Annual number of cancer diagnoses in the Netherlands projected to rise to almost 170,000 by 2045

Key findings: 

• The annual number of new cancer diagnoses is projected to increase by approximately 23% between 2025 and 2045. 
• The absolute number of diagnoses is expected to rise for almost all cancer types. Among women, the largest increases are projected for skin cancer (melanoma and cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma (cSCC))*, breast cancer, lung cancer and haematological malignancies. Among men, the largest increases are expected for skin cancer (melanoma and cSCC), prostate cancer, haematological malignancies and bladder cancer. 
• By 2045, skin cancer (melanoma and cSCC)* is projected to be the most common cancer in both women and men, replacing breast cancer and prostate cancer, which are currently the most common cancers in women and men, respectively.  
• Stomach cancer is the only cancer type for which the number of diagnoses is projected to decline further in both women and men. Among men, the number of diagnoses of several other cancers, including lung cancer, is also expected to fall. 
• The annual number of deaths from cancer is projected to increase by 24% between 2024 and 2045. In absolute terms, the largest increase in cancer deaths among women is expected for lung cancer, while among men it is expected for prostate cancer.  
• The average population risk of dying from cancer has been declining for years. This risk is higher among men than women, although the gap is narrowing.

Demographic changes account for most of the projected increase 

The Netherlands has an increasingly large older population, and people are also living to older ages on average. As cancer becomes more common with age, this is leading to a substantial increase in the number of people affected by cancer.

When population growth and ageing are considered, the average risk of receiving a cancer diagnosis is expected to remain broadly stable over the next twenty years. The projected increase in the total number of cancer diagnoses is therefore largely attributable to demographic changes.

However, this stable average for cancer overall masks differences between cancer types. The risk of some cancers, such as liver cancer and skin melanoma, is increasing, while the risk of others, such as lung cancer among men, is declining.

Prevention can influence future trends 

Population growth and ageing explain a substantial part of the projected increase in the total number of cancer diagnoses. At the same time, some future cases could be prevented through targeted prevention efforts.

Smoking, alcohol consumption, overweight and obesity, insufficient physical activity and exposure to ultraviolet (UV) radiation increase the risk of various types of cancer. For example, the risk of skin melanoma, a cancer largely caused by exposure to UV radiation, is increasing. The average risk of liver and thyroid cancer, both of which are associated with overweight and obesity, is also rising.

Among men, the risk of lung cancer has declined as smoking rates in this group have fallen over recent decades.

Previous estimates indicate that approximately one in three cancer diagnoses could potentially be prevented, for example through healthier lifestyles and living environments, as well as vaccination programmes such as HPV vaccination. Previous IKNL prevention calculations show that reducing smoking and reducing alcohol consumption could prevent thousands of cancer diagnoses.

Jaike Schilte-Praagman, Senior Researcher at IKNL, said: " We cannot change the fact that the population is growing and ageing. But we can influence factors that increase the risk of cancer. We can see that prevention works, for example in lung cancer: as men have smoked less, their risk of lung cancer has declined. The Dutch Skin Fund’s campaign has also led to a reduction in sunburn, the biggest risk factor for skin cancer.*

“These gains cannot be taken for granted. New worrying developments, such as the increasing use of nicotine products among young girls and online challenges in which young people deliberately expose themselves to the sun without protection for as long as possible*, could slow down positive trends or even reverse them, leading to an increase in risk.”

Future changes in lifestyle trends have not been incorporated into the projections.

Increasing pressure on cancer care 

The rise in new cancer diagnoses will lead to further growth in demand for cancer care. More people will need diagnostic tests, treatment and follow up care. In addition, improved survival means that more people are living with or beyond cancer for longer. This increases the need for monitoring, support and care for the long-term consequences of cancer and its treatment.

Ernst Kuipers, Chair of the Executive Board of DICA-IKNL, said: " Without targeted measures, demand for cancer care threatens to grow faster than available capacity. This affects not only patients, but society as a whole. Investing in prevention, innovation, appropriate care and a sustainable future for cancer services is no longer a choice, but a necessity."

Symposium Looking Ahead: Cancer in the Future

The projections were presented on Thursday 8 October 2026 at the annual DICA IKNL symposium, which this year focused on the future of cancer and cancer care. The full symposium is available to watch on YouTube (in Dutch).

Watch the symposium 

* About the projections 

• Basal cell carcinoma (BCC) of the skin is excluded from the overall totals. Because the risk of death from BCC is low, it is generally not included in calculations of the number of cancer cases. Projections for BCC have nevertheless been calculated separately and are available via NKR Cijfers.
• The projections should not be interpreted as exact predictions. Rather, they show how the number of new cancer diagnoses and deaths could develop up to and including 2045 if historical trends in incidence, mortality and demographics continue. The calculations combine historical trends in incidence and mortality with population figures and forecasts from Statistics Netherlands (CBS).
• Future changes in underlying trends in lifestyle, prevention, population screening, diagnosis and treatment could lead to different outcomes.
• Figures on sunburn are provided by the Dutch Skin Fund. 
• Figures on tobacco use among young people are available from the Trimbos Institute. Smoking is a major cause of cancer, but this does not mean that patients are to blame for their illness. Nicotine is highly addictive, and quitting smoking is difficult.
• More information about the methodology is available online (in Dutch).

Please note: Figures from the Netherlands Cancer Registry (NKR) represent averages across groups of patients and cannot predict individual outcomes. Factors such as cancer type, stage of disease, age, general health and treatment all play an important role. Further information for patients is available in Dutch at kanker.nl.
Notes to editors (not for publication) 

The projections provide national figures for the Netherlands as a whole. No regional projections are available.
From October 2026, IKNL will publish the projections through the interactive NCR data & figures application. Previously, they were published in report form. This new approach makes projections available for a wider range of cancer types than before. The findings will also be updated annually using the latest data from the Netherlands Cancer Registry (NKR), with each update looking twenty years ahead.